Showing posts with label high risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label high risk. Show all posts

Thursday, 22 December 2011

Keep A Watch On Uncleared Checks


Banks have an advantage that they can debit the customer account for the installment / EMI, on due date. Banks lend mostly to its customers and obviously have a better knowledge and control over customer account. If there is no balance in customer’s account, they come to know of the delinquency on the very due date and may start the collection process. Generally, banks do not lend in areas where their banks do not have branches.

But, non-banking finance companies have a disadvantage here. They accept Post-Dated Checks (PDC)for future installments from any bank.

Companies which hold post dated checks deposit checks on due dates either directly into their bank or through cash management service bank.

All PDCs are stored in a single place/ city or with cash management bank, for security reasons. Local checks are deposited through local clearing circle and the fate of the checks are known in 2-3 working days. Either thry are cleared or bounced / dishonoured.

Outstation checks are sent through clearing circle of customers’ banks. One gets to know the fate within, say 4-5 days depending upon proactive approach. After all, cash management bank depending on Service Level Agreements, stands to lose on interest if it does not collect money urgently or inform the bounces to companies early.

But, some customers’ banks do not fall in any of the clearing circle (remote, rural banks) and their checks are sent directly to the banks for clearance / payment. Customers and bankers in collusion neither clear payment nor bounce for a long period, sometimes exceeding 3 months. This phenomenon is very common with co-operative banks; some of these customers are a part of management of these banks; and even otherwise, they wield powers enough locally to stall any action on those checks by bank managers. Rarely these checks are cleared even after an undue delay. Complaints to the top management of these banks and Reserve Bank of India have very less impact on curing.

Till bounces are notified, accounts remain non-delinquent as presumptive credits are given on due dates by cash management service bank. When bounces are notified in bunch, these accounts get to 90-120 (days past due) bucket directly and get classified as high-risk-high-delinquency category, leaving very little time to repair these accounts, before many of them  move to charge off / losses.

It is recommended strongly that cash management is left to a bank for storing and collecting; there is hardly any cost as banks are satisfied with the float of collection amount enjoyed for 3-4 days. At least, it reduces operational risk and improves efficiency.

Proactively, lenders need to be alert if the post dated checks of co-operative banks are submitted by customers. Even collectors must avoid receiving past due payments by checks of these outstation and cooperative banks.

Solution lies in getting the list of customers with checks uncleared for a month or more and have their credit reassessed by field collectors ; easy and / or the right solution will be an early repossession of the underlying asset in such cases.

Thursday, 1 December 2011

Which Are High Risk Default Accounts?

Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives; the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.

Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a borrower will fail to meet his obligations in accordance with agreed terms.

Any measurement of risk is basically an estimate made using simple to complex statistical tools and methods. Simple way to measure risk is by application of probability theory. The probability of default is estimated by using the frequency of past missed payments. This is nothing but delinquency rate (%).

Delinquency rate is the total amount of past due as compared to the total instalments/ EMI billed/ matured, so far. This equals to ‘probability of default’.

Total receivables multiplied by delinquency rate give the total risk amount for a default account. This is very similar to the concept of LGD – Loss Given Default.

Pareto’s Principle - The 80-20 Rule

The 80/20 rule helps identifying high risk accounts. The 80/20 Rule means that in anything a few (20 percent) are vital and many (80 percent) are trivial.

You can apply the 80/20 Rule to almost anything, from the science of management to the physical world.

Applying Pareto rule here, top 20% of rank order list of defaulters based on delinquency rate can be considered as High Risk. Invariably, these high risk accounts will constitute 80% of the credit loss.

Limitation here is that some of ‘early’ defaulters on technical grounds will also appear as high risk accounts. To eliminate such accounts as high risk, DPD (90 days) is used, to differentiate. That is how our Quadrant-I accounts are classified/ segmented as “High Delinquency - High Risk”.

On follow up and serious field investigation, you will be sure to find the following in Quadrant-I:

1. Customer is not traceable
2. Asset is not traceable
3. Skip
4. Asset is with unrelated party
5. Lien is NOT marked
6. Asset is in accident condition
7. Asset is confiscated by authorities for misuse
8. Asset is attached and rotting in the Courts.
9. Asset is with a thug, lawyer or politician
10. File along with contract/ agreement is missing
11. Asset is double financed
12. Fraud

An early and serious action would help salvage; and minimize losses. Will these still constitute 80% of the credit loss?

Yes, it will.